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Andrew Wilson

Head of Investment

Despite a brief reprieve from the Eurozone debt crisis at the start of the year, the rejection of "austerity" by the Greek electorate has re-ignited fears of a Greek exit of the Eurozone. Markets are now starting to price in the probability of the demise of the current Eurozone, and the impact that would have, as they see it. Theoretically, it need not be a problem for Greece to leave the Eurozone, at least now, rather than how it would have been 12 months ago. We assume that the rest of the Eurozone will create whatever "firewall" necessary to prevent contagion whipping round the Mediterranean area, which is a scenario that is in absolutely no one's interests. The key country, in terms of "capitulation" is actually Germany, in that it is becoming increasingly clear to us that it must do more for its southern neighbours, if it wishes the euro to survive. Alternatively, it could be Germany herself that actually leaves the euro. There are finally signs of a softening of Germany's stance.

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